Better Information = Better Brackets
The Colton Index is a true 'body-of-work' college basketball rating system. It was designed to do exactly what the NCAA Selection Committee claims to be trying to do: measure how one team's resume of wins and losses stacks up against others. Using the same data and input as the RPI (win/loss data only, not margin of victory), the Colton Index is much more accurate reflection of a team's resume and of its strength of schedule.
Please review the three-part slideshow below examining the flaws of the current RPI system and how they can be addressed. For additional information and insights, check out the Colton Index blog.
Seeds are based on body-of-work rating with extra consideration for quality wins and performance over the last 10 games if the season ended today. It's not what I think the brackets will look like, but only what I think they should look like if the NCAA applies the factors they have said to value systematically and fairly across the board. Final.
1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Kansas
2: Tennessee, Duke, Texas, Wisconsin
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Connecticut, Marquette, Michigan St
6: Clemson, Notre Dame, Indiana, Vanderbilt
7: Kent St, Purdue, Oklahoma, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Arizona, Miami (FL)
9: BYU, Baylor, Davidson, Arizona St
10: Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Arkansas
11: Villanova, Kansas St, Florida St, UNLV
12: Mississippi St, Temple, Western Kentucky, Oral Roberts
13: Georgia, Cornell, George Mason, Siena
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, UT Arlington, Mt St. Mary's, Coppin St, Miss Valley St
Last 4 In: Villanova, Kansas St, Florida St, Mississippi St
First 4 Out: Ohio State, Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts
Next 4 Out: Dayton, Creighton, Virginia Tech, Mississippi
Part I: Flaws in the RPI (21:30)
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A comprehensive examination of the inherent flaws in the RPI formula. The margin of error in the RPI numbers and all of it components is staggering...to the point that it's difficult to draw any logical conclusions from the numbers. Find out why the New RPI (with the 40% home/road adjustments) is even worse than the old RPI! And see how the flaws in the RPI system create opportunities for programs to easily game the system. NOTE: This presentation has been updated as of 3/11 with more detail and examples. Check it out.
Part II: Introducing the Colton Index
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An introduction of the Colton Index and how it solves most, if not all, of the flaws in the RPI.
Part III: Inside the Numbers
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A closer look at the brackets last year to see the impact that 'the numbers' can have. Also, shows some cool applications and analysis that can easily be done using the Colton Index data.